We now have described in detail over the previous two years how we imagine China’s twin excesses (extreme investment funded by extreme debt) will inevitably unwind, inflicting a substantial slowdown in China’s economy, significantly beneath market expectations. In recent weeks, a trip to the region and additional analysis into China’s shadow banking system have satisfied us that China is approaching its Minsky Moment,” which will increase the probabilities of a disorderly unwind of China’s excesses.
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